Current and projected distributions of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Canada and the U.


Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are mosquito vectors of more than 22 arboviruses that infect humans. We used boosted regression trees to assess climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in Canada and the United States (US) under current and future projected climate. Models for both species were mostly influenced by minimum daily temperature and demonstrated high accuracy for predicting their geographic ranges under current climate. Northward range expansion of suitable niche for both species was projected under future climate. Much of the US and parts of southern Canada are projected to be suitable for both species by 2100; with Ae. albopictus projected to expand its range north earlier this century and further north than Ae. aegypti. An associated increased risk of local transmission of Aedestransmitted arboviruses in the projected ecological niche means that surveillance for these vectors and the pathogens that they carry would be prudent..